社会科学 / 経済学 / 財政・公共経済
Economic Inquiry査読有り52(3)p.1137 - 11522014年-
概要：Attempts by governments to stop bubbles by issuing warnings seem unsuccessful. This article examines the effects of public warnings using a simple model of riding bubbles. We show that public warnings against a bubble can stop it if investors believe that a warning is issued in a definite range of periods commencing around the starting period of the bubble. If a warning involves the possibility of being issued too early, regardless of the starting period of the bubble, it cannot stop the bubble immediately. Bubble duration can be shortened by a premature public warning, but lengthened if it is late.
Japanese Journal of Political Science査読有り16(1)p.5 - 312015年-
概要：Dynastic politicians, defined as those whose family members have also served in the same position in the past, occupy a sizable portion of offices in many parts of the world. We develop a model of how dynastic politicians with inherited political advantages affect electoral outcomes and policy choices. Our model predicts that, as compared with non-dynastic legislators, dynastic legislators bring more distributions to the district, enjoy higher electoral success, and harm the economic performance of the districts, despite the larger amount of distributive benefits they bring. We test the implications of the model using data from Japan between 1997 and 2007.
The B.E. Journal of Theoretical Economics査読有り15(2)p.313 - 3312015年-
概要：This study develops a war-of-attrition model with the asymmetric feature that one player can be defeated by the other but not vice versa; that is, only one player has an exogenous probability of being forced to capitulate. With complete information, the equilibria are almost identical to the canonical war-of-attrition model. On the other hand, with incomplete information on a player’s robustness, a war where both players fight for some duration emerges. Moreover, a player who is never defeated may capitulate in equilibrium, and this player will give in earlier if the other player’s fighting costs are greater.
Japanese Economic Review査読有り66(3)p.322 - 3532015年-
概要：This study examines and models the effects of partially binding campaign platforms in a political competition. Here, a candidate who implements a policy that differs from the platform must pay a cost of betrayal, which increases with the size of the discrepancy. I also analyse endogenous decisions by citizens to run for an election. In particular, the model is able to show two implications that previous frameworks have had difficulty with. First, candidates with different characteristics have different probabilities of winning an election. Second, even knowing that he/she will lose an election, a candidate will still run, hoping to make an opponent's policy approach his/her own policy.
Journal of Theoretical Politics査読有り27(4)p.613 - 6492015年-
概要：This study develops a political competition model in which campaign platforms are partially binding. A candidate who implements a policy that differs from his/her platform must pay a cost of betrayal, which increases with the size of the discrepancy. I also assume that voters are uncertain about candidates’ policy preferences. If voters believe that a candidate is likely to be extreme, there exists a semi-separating equilibrium: an extreme candidate imitates a moderate candidate, with some probability, and approaches the median policy with the remaining probability. Although an extreme candidate will implement a more extreme policy than a moderate candidate, regardless of imitation or approach, partial pooling ensures that voters prefer an extreme candidate who does not pretend to be moderate over an uncertain candidate who announces an extreme platform. As a result, a moderate candidate never has a higher probability of winning than an extreme candidate.
Japanese Political Science Review査読有り3p.43 - 652016年-
概要：This study offers a new explanation of why third-party and independent candidates, with a marginal probability of winning, run for U.S. state-level elections. We argue that the economic benefits of holding an office is what motivates amateur politicians to run, and predict that amateur politicians find this particularly attractive when the private sector is struggling. This is because, during a recession, amateur politicians view an elected office as a more attractive source of income than private jobs, and they pursue political power to change economic prospects by adopting new policies. Building on this argument, we hypothesize that as the unemployment rate increases, the number of third-party and independent candidates increases. Our analysis of panel data of state house, state senate, and gubernatorial elections in 48 U.S. states between 1980 and 2010 reveals that the hypothesized relationship existed only for state legislative elections. To explain why these candidates run, despite their very small probability of winning, we argue that these candidates may overestimate their probability of winning.
The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy査読有り16(3)p.1501 - 15382016年-
概要：What are the fiscal consequences of legislative term limits? To answer this question, we first develop a legislative bargaining model that describes negotiations over the allocation of distributive projects among legislators with different levels of seniority. Building on several predictions from the model, we develop two hypotheses for empirical testing. First, the adoption of term limits that results in a larger reduction in the variance of seniority within a legislature increases the amount of government spending. Second, legislatures that adopt stricter term limits increase the amount of government spending, while legislatures that adopt moderate term limits show no change in the amount. We provide evidence for these hypotheses using panel data for 49 US state legislatures between 1980 and 2010.
公共選択招待有り67p.66 - 842017年-
都市問題110(7)p.10 - 142019年07月-
Journal of Theoretical Politics査読有り31(4)p.626 - 6412019年10月-
概要：Political parties and candidates usually prefer making ambiguous promises. This study identifies the conditions under which candidates choose ambiguous promises in equilibrium, given convex utility functions of voters. The results show that in a deterministic model, no equilibrium exists when voters have convex utility functions. However, in a probabilistic voting model, candidates make ambiguous promises in equilibrium when (i) voters have convex utility functions, and (ii) the distribution of voters’ most preferred policies is polarized.
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control査読有りforthcoming
概要：Asymmetric information has explained the existence of a bubble in extant theoretical models. This study experimentally analyzes traders’ choices with and without asymmetric information based on the riding-bubble model. We show that traders tend to hold a bubble asset for longer, thereby expanding the bubble in a market with symmetric, rather than asymmetric, information. However, when traders are more experienced, the size of the bubble decreases, in which case bubbles do not arise with symmetric information. By contrast, the size of the bubble is stable in a market with asymmetric information.
有斐閣2018年 12月-2018年 12月
研究成果概要：This projectoffers a new explanation for the entry of third-party and independentcandidates into the US state-level...This projectoffers a new explanation for the entry of third-party and independentcandidates into the US state-level elections. We argue that the economicbenefits of holding an office is what motivates amateur politicians to run,predicting that amateur politicians find holding an elected office particularlyattractive when the private sector is struggling. This is because, during therecession, amateur politicians view that an elected office is a more attractivesource of income as compared to private jobs, while pursuing political power tochange the economic prospect by adopting a new policy. Building on thisargument, we hypothesize that as the unemployment rate increases, the number ofthird-party and independent candidates increases. Our analysis with panel dataof state house, state senate, and gubernatorial elections in 48 US statesbetween 1980 and 2010 reveals that the hypothesized relationship existed onlyfor state legislative elections. To explain why these candidates run, despitetheir very small probability of winning, we extend the prospect theory tosuggest that these candidates may overestimate their probability of winning.
研究成果概要：Politicians prefer to use vague words andoutline several policies in their electoral promises, which is termed as"p...Politicians prefer to use vague words andoutline several policies in their electoral promises, which is termed as"political ambiguity." It is reasonable to interpret politicalambiguity as a lottery, that is, a probability distribution on policies, in thefollowing manner: Candidates announce a lottery, and a voter chooses acandidate who announces a better lottery for themselves. However, it is stilldifficult to explain why politicians prefer to use vague promises (i.e., alottery) based on a rational-choice model.To understand the difficulties in thisregard, we should begin by locating a Condorcet winner that allows politicalambiguity. Black (1948) shows that if we suppose that voters can choose only asingle policy, a unique Condorcet winner is at the median policy (i.e., themedian voter's preferred policy). On the other hand, my work supposes a lotteryinstead of a single policy, which is called a Condorcet winning lottery: Alottery that defeats or ties with all other lotteries in pairwise elections. Insummary, the unique Condorcet winning lottery is the median policy when votersare risk-averse or risk-neutral, while its existence is not ensured when votersare risk-loving.
|Behavioral Economics ０１||政治経済学部||2019||春学期|
|Game Theory I ０１||政治経済学部||2019||秋学期|
|Advanced Seminar I ０４||政治経済学部||2019||春学期|
|Advanced Seminar II ０４||政治経済学部||2019||秋学期|
|Advanced Seminar III ０４||政治経済学部||2019||春学期|
|Advanced Seminar IV ０４||政治経済学部||2019||秋学期|
|Public Choice ０１||政治経済学部||2019||秋学期|
|Political Economy I(Asako, Y)||大学院経済学研究科||2019||春学期|