朴　相俊

研究種別：

2013年-0月-2016年-0月

配分額：￥3380000

研究種別：基盤研究(A)

2012年-2016年

研究分野：応用経済学

配分額：￥34710000

研究種別：

配分額：￥3640000

研究種別：

配分額：￥1700000

研究種別：

2017年-0月-2020年-0月

配分額：￥2990000

2005年度

研究成果概要：The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of deindustrialization on economic growth and to compare it ...The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of deindustrialization on economic growth and to compare it with the impact of industrialization. The paper employs a two sector neo-classical growth model as the theoretical basis of empirical tests. The two sectors are industry (or manufacturing) and services. Then, the growth model is converted into testable growth equations. Empirical tests using data from 93 countries for the period from 1975 to 2002 indicate the contribution of the service sector on economic growth is almost the same as that of the manufacturing sector. However, further tests using sub sets of data with different income levels show the relative contribution of the sectors depend on income levels. The results imply that transition from agriculture to services without going through industrialization should not be a desirable development policy and that the impacts of deindustrialization on economic growth are positive for rich countries.

2008年度

研究成果概要：1. Unbalanced capital-labor ratio among sectors and economic growthAs deindustrialization proceeds in advanced coun...1. Unbalanced capital-labor ratio among sectors and economic growthAs deindustrialization proceeds in advanced countries, labor shifts from the manufacturing sector to the service sector faster than physical capital. As a result, the capital-labor ratio of the service sector becomes relatively lower than that of the manufacturing sector. This paper investigates whether this unbalanced capital-labor ratio among sectors have some impacts on economic growth. Since sectoral investment data are not avaiable in general, the data were computed based on a multi-sector neo classical growth model. The empirical analysis using the WDI and Penn-world data for the period from 1980 to 2004 shows over-investment in a sector has negative influence on economic growth, implying that countires in which labor is moving to the service sector but capital investment does not follow will have sluguish economic growth.2. The service sector in the ROK: A comparison of trends and labor productivity with selected OECD countriesThis paper computes the labor productivity of five OECD countries (South Korea, Japan, Germany, UK, US) for the period from 1980 to 2003 using OECDSTAN indcators database (2005) and compares them. Especially by comparing the service sector productivity of South Korea (ROK) with those of Japan and other advanced countries, this paper aims to obtain policy implication regarding the service sector development. The computed productivity shows that South Korea and Japan follows very similar trend in which some service sectors are absorbing workers from some downsizing manufacturing sectors due to deindustrialization and thus suffer from low labor productivity. This problem chanllanges the two countries. One imprtant task of the Korean and the Japanese economy is to develop industries which will efficiently producing services and thus which will absorb workers from low-productive service sectors.

2012年度

研究成果概要：The purpose of this paper is to examine whether heterogeneous expectations models can explain the irrational dynami...The purpose of this paper is to examine whether heterogeneous expectations models can explain the irrational dynamics ofthe Korean exchange rate during 2007-2008 global financial crisis. Even though the fundamental economic variables such as GDP, current account balance and unemployment rate were not badly affected by the so called sub-prime mortgage crisis and the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Korea's currency value depreciated much more drastically than other Asian currencies in 2008. The present paper adopted heterogeneous models in which two types of market participants trade foreign currencies to maximize their profits in the foreign currency market. In the first model, one type of market participants have rational expectations and the other type has static expectations. In the second model, one type is fundamentalsits who believe that the exchange rate will return to the equilibrium value based on PPP. The other type is chartists who believe the current trend will persist. In the two models, market participants can change their expectations formations functions based on their past performance. Empirical tests using montly data for the period from 2000 January to 2012 June show that the two heterogeneous models better fit to the actual data than rational expectations models. In addition, the test results indicate the presence of heterogeneity in the expectations of market participants. However, the results are not consistent with theoretical prediction in the respect that the fraction of type-one agents do not increase but decrease when the performance of type-one expectation formation function outperform the performance of type-two expectations formation function.Finally, the heterogeneous models better capture the irrational movements of the Korean exchange rate in 2008-2009 than rational expectations models. However, the dynamics of the Korean exchange rate in that period were much more volatile than even the predictions of the heterogeneous models, implying that to explain the excessive volatility in the Korean exchange rate during the global crisis requires more than lack of rationality of economic agents.

2017年度

研究成果概要：This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan...This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchange rates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countries involved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1% in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48% decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the value of Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinese quantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chinese export value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen in a quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean price by 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the same quarter. In addition, it increases the Korean export value in the following quarter by 0.19%. The test for a structural break will be performed after the data coverage is extended to 2017Q4.

2016年度

研究成果概要：This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan...This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digit level machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and South Korea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchange rates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countries involved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1% in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48% decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the value of Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinese quantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chinese export value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen in a quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean price by 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the same quarter. 

2016年度

研究成果概要：This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digitlevel machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan ...This research analyzes the panel data of ten-digitlevel machinery commodities which are exported from China, Japan and SouthKorea to the US from 2002Q1 to 2012Q4 to determine the impacts of exchangerates on the quantity and price of the exports of the three Asian countriesinvolved. The TSLS estimation results show that a depreciation of the yen by 1%in a quarter leads to 0.47% increase in the Japanese quantity and 0.48%decrease in the Japanese price, resulting in a very slight change in the valueof Japan’s exports in the same quarter. Even though it pushes up the Chinesequantity more than it pushes down the Chinese price, its impact on the Chineseexport value is negligibly small. In contrast, a 1% depreciation of the yen ina quarter increases the Korean quantity by 0.85% and decreases the Korean priceby 0.7% resulting in 0.15% increase in the Korean export value in the samequarter.